Saya mendapat kesempatan untuk duduk dan mengobrol dengan penulis Washington Post Nats, Spencer Nusbaum. Dia salah satu penulis yang nyata dan datang hari ini. Lulusan universitas Amerika, saya senang membaca liputannya tentang NATS musim ini. Dia memiliki beberapa karya hebat baru -baru ini, seperti bagaimana beberapa pemain nasional telah belajar tips dan trik dari rekan -rekan MLB mereka baseball-highlights-mlb-players-learn/”>Tik. Saya sangat menikmati percakapan dan senang berbagi transkrip yang diedit dengan komunitas baseball federal.

Q (Sam Sallick): Jenis perubahan spesifik apa yang Anda lihat dalam operasi sejak Mike DeBartolo telah mengambil alih?

A (Spencer Nusbaum): Itu pertanyaan yang bagus. Jadi itu adalah sesuatu yang masih kami laporkan, tetapi banyak dari apa yang telah kami kumpulkan sejauh ini adalah semua poin pembicaraan yang sebelumnya dimiliki Mike DeBartolo tentang bagaimana kami ingin mengintegrasikan lebih banyak data. Mereka ingin memastikan bahwa data sedang mengemas segala jenis keputusan yang kami buat. Anda melihat itu membuahkan hasil, apakah itu di tingkat pengembangan pemain, memastikan bahwa mereka memiliki suara R&D seperti itu di sekitar organisasi lebih banyak. Misalnya filosofi mereka tentang pertahanan penangkap sedang berubah, yang merupakan sesuatu yang masih kami laporkan, memastikan bahwa itu sedikit lebih modern dalam garis pemikiran.

Hanya ada begitu banyak yang dapat dicapai oleh GM sementara atau benar -benar dapat dicapai dalam dua setengah bulan di pucuk pimpinan. Dan kita akan melihat apakah dia mendapatkan pekerjaan itu penuh waktu, tetapi untuk saat ini, itu benar -benar berusaha memastikan bahwa data mencadangkan cara kita membahas hal -hal daripada mengandalkan pendapat para pramuka atau pengetahuan baseball.

Satu tempat di mana Anda dapat meletakkan jari Anda di atasnya dan mengatakan ini adalah produk dari keputusan yang didukung data adalah jika Anda melihat cara mereka menggunakan penggunaan bullpen. Saya tahu hal besar di bawah Davey dan cara yang dirasakan banyak orang dalam organisasi adalah penggunaan penghilang yang berlebihan. Dan jika Anda melihat cara itu telah dipisahkan di bawah Kairo dan ini bukan hanya cara yang suka dioperasikan oleh Kairo, itu adalah cara Org sekarang suka beroperasi, penggunaannya jauh lebih merata.

Q: Sejalan dengan itu, bagaimana menurut Anda cara berpikir yang baru itu melelahkan diri dalam rancangan dan pada tenggat waktu perdagangan?

A: Saya pikir itu berhasil. Pemahaman saya adalah bahwa itu pasti melaju, tidak secara unik, tetapi pasti mendorong pengambilan keputusan. Anda melihat mengambil Eli Willits nomor satu secara keseluruhan, kami tidak akan pernah tahu apakah itu sebenarnya orang yang memiliki nilai kepanduan tertinggi atau nilai analitik tertinggi di papan mereka. Tetapi pemahaman saya adalah bahwa dia dinilai dengan baik di kedua bidang dan dalam konsep di mana tidak harus konsensus pria nomor satu.

Sangat masuk akal untuk mengambil seorang pria yang di bawah slot dan mungkin menghancurkan cara berpikir tradisional tradisional yang hanya tentang mengambil pria terbaik yang tersedia dan bergerak maju dari sana.

Banyak dari itu hanya semacam merampingkannya dan memastikan bahwa itu terintegrasi dan memastikan itu 60% dari pengambilan keputusan alih-alih 30% dari pengambilan keputusan. Dan saya agak membuang nomor sewenang -wenang di sini. Tapi saya pikir apa yang saya maksudkan adalah banyak orang di organisasi benar -benar merasa seperti mereka siap untuk melakukan throttle penuh ke arah ini dan bahwa mereka tidak perlu mempekerjakan 20 orang lagi di R&D atau mereka perlu menghabiskan $ 80 juta dalam berinvestasi dalam pengembangan pemain. Saya pikir mereka pasti dapat meningkatkan di kedua aspek dan mereka benar -benar harus menghabiskan lebih banyak untuk berinvestasi di kedua bidang ini. Tapi saya pikir ada banyak kepercayaan nyata pada organisasi sekarang.

Q: Saya tahu Anda belum pernah berada di ruang ganti baru -baru ini, tetapi dengan semua perubahan itu, bagaimana semuanya bisa terjadi pada para pemain?

A: Di clubhouse, saya kira hal utama yang akan saya katakan, dan saya ingin memilih kata -kata saya dengan hati -hati bukan karena saya takut mengacaukan, tetapi lebih dari itu saya hanya ingin menyampaikan ini secara akurat. Saya tidak tahu bahwa itu adalah kejutan budaya besar ketika Davey pergi.

Sebagian dari itu adalah karena sisa stafnya. Tapi saya pikir ada semacam dorongan energi yang bagus yang berasal dari itu. Mereka memiliki peregangan yang sangat kasar di bawah Kairo, sama seperti yang mereka miliki di bawah Davey. Tapi saya pikir itu berbeda. Dalam konferensi pers, jelas merupakan suara yang berbeda, tetapi bahkan di clubhouse telah ada pelukan gerakan pemuda, merangkul filosofi yang berbeda.

Saya tidak ingin mencirikannya seperti pergeseran energi yang besar karena saya tidak berpikir itu saja. Tapi saya akan mencirikannya sebagai mungkin satu atau dua langkah ke arah yang benar. Anda tahu, semua orang akan memiliki pemikiran sendiri tentang itu. Pemain, pelatih, dan sebagainya. Tapi saya pikir konsensus umum adalah, hei, kami memiliki suara baru, mari kita lakukan setelah itu. Dan saya pikir ini bermanfaat.

Q: Dengan kru Dylan yang kembali, itu hanya enam minggu yang sangat besar baginya. Apa yang telah Anda buat dari kemajuannya dan menurut Anda apa yang harus dia temukan di akhir musim yang akan datang ini?

A: Saya pikir saya mungkin salah satu orang yang lebih bullish di kru. Saya tahu pada hari kita berbicara, dia memukul .199 dengan enam sesuatu OPS. Filosofi saya adalah melihat angka di bawah kap pertama terlebih dahulu, yang tidak bagus, tetapi mereka cukup bagus, sedikit di atas rata -rata liga utama, dan dia masih berusia 23 tahun. Jadi itu jelas poin yang bagus untuknya.

Ada hal -hal yang mungkin bisa dia bersihkan. Tingkat strikeout telah naik tahun ini, jadi itu adalah sesuatu yang akan saya cari selama enam minggu terakhir ini, jika dia bisa membersihkannya. Mungkin sedikit meningkatkan profil bola yang bertarung sedikit dan memastikan bahwa dia memukul, mematahkan bola sebaik yang dia bisa. Tapi sungguh, ini adalah profil yang saya sangat bullish.

Q: Pada catatan positif, dalam musim apa yang gelap bagi Nats, apa saja cerita favorit Anda yang keluar dari tahun ini?

A: James Wood terlihat seperti 10 pemain teratas dalam olahraga kadang -kadang adalah salah satu yang cukup jelas. Itu satu lagi di mana seperti, dia orang yang hebat, dia jelas berada di sisi yang tenang, tetapi orang yang hebat di clubhouse, sangat disukai. Saya melihat hamparan bulan lalu, bukan untuk menjadi negatif, dan itu buruk, tetapi juga, apakah saya pikir James Wood adalah pemain OPS 0,840 seperti sekarang? Atau dia lebih seperti pria OPS .940 yang dia masukkan ke istirahat All-Star. Saya pikir dia pria itu 0,940.

Jika Anda memiliki pemukul 10 teratas dalam bisbol, itu menarik. Itu adalah hal yang luar biasa untuk dibangun. Dia membuat Anda ingin menyalakan TV, yang, saya tahu, sulit ketika Anda menonton Nationals sekarang. Tetapi setiap kali dia siap untuk kelelawar, bahkan jika saya di tengah menulis kalimat atau paragraf. Saya tahu saya perlu mencari komputer saya. Dan itulah sinyal bahwa orang ini layak untuk ditonton dan layak diperhatikan.

Hal yang sama dengan Mackenzie Gore. Apakah saya pikir dia adalah pria dengan era di bertiga rendah empat atau tinggi, atau apakah saya pikir dia lebih dekat dengan pria yang seperti tiga era rendah dengan tingkat striker tinggi, yang kadang -kadang meledakkan tamasya, tetapi umumnya bagus. Saya pikir dia lebih dekat dengan yang terakhir. Beberapa tahun terakhir belum sempurna untuknya, tetapi saya pikir dia telah menunjukkan tanda -tanda kemajuan yang nyata. Pengembangan CJ Abrams juga fantastis.

Q: Yang terakhir, apakah Anda memiliki pemikiran tentang bagaimana mereka menyerang offseason ini dengan begitu banyak perubahan yang harus dilakukan?

A: Saya pikir seseorang masih TBD hanya karena ada begitu banyak di udara. Kami belum tahu siapa yang menjalankan operasi. Menembak ke kepala saya, saya pikir itu akan menjadi Mike DeBartolo, tapi benar -benar mustahil untuk mengetahui dulu.

When Nathaniel Lowe was designated for assignment on Thursday to make room for Dylan Crews on the roster in his return from the IL, it signaled the Nationals front office was ready to move on from him and begin their search for their first baseman of the future once more. Lowe was set to make well over 10 million next season in arbitration, money that the next general manager (who may end up being the man who cut Lowe loose in Mike DeBartolo) will be able to reinvest into a different option at first base, or other areas of the team if they decide to let an in-house candidate. Let’s take a look at the many options the Nationals have at first base entering the 2026 season.

2025 Numbers (33 Games in Double A, 63 Games in Triple A): 96 Games, 113 wRC+, .434 SLG, 27.5 K%

There is a lot to love about Morales’ game, but also some things to be worried about. He has shown plus power potential, with an 89th percentile average exit velocity in Triple A of 92mph, and a 92nd percentile max exit velocity of 112.8. Despite this, Morales has struggled to hit home runs consistently in the minors, having 12 in 96 games this season at Double and Triple A, far too low for a player with his power potential.

The biggest reasons for this are that Morales doesn’t hit the ball with loft enough, with an average launch angle of 4 degrees, and he struggles to pull his fly balls, with a below-average pulled fly ball percentage of 11.4%. Morales has hit some impressive opposite-field bombs in the minor leagues, but he could hit them with even more consistency and force if he could pull the ball more and get it in the air more often. Morales also has a swing and miss problem, one he cannot outhit at the big league level unless he is putting up impressive power numbers.

Based on the changes that will be necessary for Morales to reach at least league-average big league offensive production, I would not be very confident in his ability to thrive as the Nationals’ 2026 opening day first baseman. If he can make the proper adjustments and thrives at the start of next season in Triple A, then I am very much open to giving him a shot, but he is going to have to prove it first.

2025 Numbers: 68 Games, 65 wRC+, 2 HR, 3 BB%

Before yesterday’s game against the Phillies, Miguel Cairo was working out on the field at first base with Jose Tena and Keibert Ruiz. While I expect Tena was out there more to get reps in case of an emergency where someone needs to play first, Ruiz getting reps at first makes me wonder if they consider him a serious candidate for the future of the first base position. I’ve done a lot of complaining about Ruiz this season, but I am willing to take a positive outlook this time, as a move to first base could be the best thing for Ruiz and the Nats moving forward.

For the Nats, they can replace Ruiz behind the plate with someone much better defensively, or keep rolling with the Drew Millas and Riley Adams platoon that has surprisingly been one of the better ones in baseball over the last month. Being financially tied to Ruiz until at least 2030, finding a use for him rather than just eating the money or letting him hold you back with his terrible defense at catcher probably seems rather enticing to them.

For Ruiz, he will have much more time to work on his offense, especially once he is settled in at first base. Ruiz’s woes at the plate have been well documented by myself and many others, as all his power from early in his career has been seemingly sapped, and he lacks a strong plate approach despite great bat-to-ball skills. With less time spent preparing for calling games and less fatigue from catching 100+ games a year, Ruiz can focus his efforts mainly on his offense, where, if he can maintain his April 2025 level offense for a full season while playing serviceable defense at first, he would be a net positive ballplayer for the Nats.

2025 Numbers: 119 Games, 86 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR

Technically still a part of the Nationals organization until (or if) someone claims him, Lowe’s 2025 went about as bad as it could’ve, but it doesn’t mean his career is over yet. Lowe spent years being one of the most reliable first basemen in baseball in Texas before coming to DC and struggling heavily on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. What changed? For starters, the Nationals’ coaching staff thought Lowe had greater power potential than he had previously shown, so they worked with him to adjust his approach at the plate, swinging more than he ever had before, and ended up throwing off his whole game.

I still believe Lowe has the ability to turn it around, but I don’t see it being with the Nationals, not only for the fact that they just cut ties with him, but also because of issues with Lowe’s leadership in 2025. According to Grant Paulsen, the Nationals were looking for Lowe to be a clubhouse leader, someone who could keep the young guys in line while being a consistent face in the heart of their lineup. Instead, Lowe wished to just be another guy in the clubhouse, not wanting to have to take on a kind of leadership role. This disagreement, along with his failures on the field, makes it extremely unlikely Nathaniel Lowe is in consideration to be the Nationals’ first baseman in 2026.

Pete Alonso (Player Option)

2025 Numbers: 122 Games, 28 HRs, 143 wRC+, 3 fWAR

I will get it out of the way right now that this is probably a highly improbable, but nevertheless, I can’t write an article about potential first base candidates without mentioning the best one on the market, Pete Alonso. Alonso was a popular potential target for the Nationals last winter, one that ultimately didn’t come to fruition as the Nats went bargain bin hunting and Alonso stuck around in Queens on a 2-year, $54 million contract, one that included a $24 million player option for 2026. With him having one of the best offensive seasons of his career in 2025, he seems likely to opt out of his current contract and hit the market again, where he will get a lengthy and expensive deal.

Hitters don’t come much more consistent than Pete Alonso, as he has hit 30+ home runs every year of his career, including 40+ twice and 53 in his rookie year, and a 132 wRC+ for his career. He is also one of the most consistent players in baseball, as he’s played in every game this season, all 162 last season, and has never played fewer than 150 games (excluding the shortened 2020 season) in his career. No current National outside of James Wood even rivals Alonso offensively, and he’d be the best hitter at first base for the Nationals since Ryan Zimmerman in 2017.

The primary issue with signing Pete Alonso, or any player of his caliber for that matter, is the price tag. Starting with the contract, Alonso is set to get a deal that spans at least 4 years, while getting an average of around 30 million dollars per year. The Lerners have done incredibly little spending over the last 6 years, and signing a player of Alonso’s caliber seems incredibly unlikely for them to sign off on. They’ve made revenue-boosting moves all season, such as the jersey patch and the opportunity to negotiate a new TV deal entering 2026, but it’s yet to be seen if that money will be reallocated into improving the roster or not.

The other issue with signing Alonso is not only the fact that he plays for the division rival Mets, but the fact that he is adored by their fans, and he loves them back. Players sign within the same division every year, but not many are willing to leave a place where they are beloved for a worse team where the fans will have no mercy if he underperforms. To get a deal done, the Nats would need to clearly pass the Mets and any other suitors in money offered, something that seems very unlikely to happen. For these reasons, while he’d be a perfect fit for the Nats, I wouldn’t count on Pete Alonso being the Nationals first baseman in 2026.

2025 Numbers: 111 Games, 127 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Naylor has taken a leap offensively in 2025, and is maybe my favorite candidate to be the Nationals first baseman in 2026. In a similar manner to Lowe, he is a better hitter when he focuses on getting on base rather than power, as he’s hit 31 home runs in a season, but his 2 best seasons have been years hes had 17 and (currently) 15 home runs.

One of the things Naylor has on his side that many free agents do is youth, as he just turned 28 years old and has only seemed to improve throughout his career. Many free agents, including the others on this list, don’t hit free agency until their 30s, so Naylor seems much less likely to regress heavily in the backend of a contract compared to Pete Alonso and others. Another underrated part of Naylor’s game is his competitiveness, as if you’ve seen any clips of Josh Naylor before, you know how fired up he can get. The Nats hoped Lowe would be that kind of leader and competitor for them in 2025, and Naylor has the opportunity to right his wrongs, both on and off the field.

Speaking of contracts, Naylor is a great fit for the Nats because his contract will not be too pricey that it keeps them from signing anyone else in the offseason. Spotrac projects his market value to be at around 16 million, and I think that number wouldn’t go any higher than around 20 million, a very reasonable amount of money to pay for a consistent first baseman in todays game. For a pricetag of roughly 4 years, 75 million, the Nationals could lockdown a position they’ve struggled to find any production from with one of the most fierce and consistent competitors in the game.

2025 Numbers: 105 Games, 130 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

After spending 2 seasons in Baltimore flying under the radar as an above average first baseman/designated hitter, O’Hearn has broken out in a big way in 2025, posting career highs in just about every offensive category. It may seem like an out of nowhere jump for him, which could be scary when you consider giving a long term contract to a sudden breakout player, but when you look at the underlying numbers, the potential for this kind offensive success was always there, he is just fully realizing it in 2025.

Unlike Alonso and Naylor who get most of their production from their bats, O’Hearn is also a solid defender at first base, posting 94th percentile range there in 2025 and 83rd percentile in 2023. He largely splits between 1B and DH, so I can’t say how he would grade out as a defender over an entire season at first, but he’s shown in the small stints there over multiple seasons that he’s a very capable defender.

Similar to Naylor, O’Hearn is gonna cost more than the Nats have given out in recent years, but he’s not gonna break the bank. Spotrac projects his market value to be around 14 million, less than Naylor and likely over less years, as O’Hearn will turn 33 in 2026. There is risk attached to signing O’Hearn such as regression to his career norm numbers and age, but even if he does take a step back, he would produce the most value for the Nats from a first baseman in years.

Paul Goldschmidt/Ty France/Dominic Smith

Goldschmidt’s 2025 Numbers: 113 Games, 108 wRC+, 1 fWAR

France’s 2025 Numbers: 113 Games, 98 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR

Smith’s 2025 Numbers: 45 Games, 113 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

This tier includes all of the lower end free agent first basemen, the tier the Nationals usually do their shopping from. Goldschmidt isn’t the MVP he once was, but he’s still a reliable hitter who can get on base at a solid clip, all for a reasonable price.

France has bounced around the league a little after being one of the better hitting first basemen in baseball in his early years in Seattle, and now is a slightly below league average hitter who may have the potential for a second wind in his career similar to O’Hearn.

Former Nat Dom Smith has been in San Francisco the past 2 seasons, where he is putting up a respectable 113 wRC+ in 45 games this season, although the underlying numbers aren’t especially strong.

A signing of any of these 3 players wouldn’t move the needle for me on the Nats improving as a club entering 2026, but they all do have certain upsides to them. Goldschidt is a veteran who could be the kind of leader the Nats lack in the clubhouse, France has the chance to be a bargain if you can unlock something that he’s been missing since his prime years, and Smith would come a cheap price that would allow the Nats to reallocate money elsewhere, and also makes it easy to move off him if Morales proves he’s ready for the big leagues mid-year.

As you can see from my rankings, I would like the Nationals to spend a respectable amount of money on the first base position this winter, with the midsized contract guys Naylor and O’Hearn being my favorites. If they aren’t willing to do that, I’d most like to see them grab Ty France on a cheap 1-2 year deal, as I think his offensive ceiling is higher than where it currently. I’m not a fan of many of the in-house options at first base for the Nats, with my preference being letting Ruiz try and learn it since you’re locked up financially to him anyways, and letting Morales start the year in Triple A. Whatever does happen, we can at least hopefully count on the Nats getting better than the 2nd worst fWAR among qualified hitters from their first baseman in 2026, unlike this season.